Maldives Air Connectivity Strategy: Diversifying Beyond Gulf Hubs to Drive Tourism Growth and Aviation Resilience - Part 1

Summary of the analysis

• Reduce dependence on Gulf carriers and diversify connectivity through Europe, North Asia, Africa, and Oceania.

• Convert the Maldives' 53 aviation agreements into actual air services and unlock the 57% of underutilized ASAs and MOUs.

• Prioritize high-value markets such as Spain, Japan, South Korea, Scandinavia, Australia, South Africa, Ethiopia, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.

• Establish a National Route Development Fund and coordinated air connectivity strategy involving government, airports, airlines, Visit Maldives, and industry stakeholders.

• Develop a holistic, economically driven National Aviation Policy with liberal ASAs, strategic traffic rights, and long-term aviation, tourism, trade, and investment alignment.

Maldives Air Connectivity Diversification Requires a Long-Term Strategic Approach

Much has been said in recent months about the Maldivian government’s efforts to diversify the country’s air connectivity in response to the disruptions caused by the Middle East crisis. While discussions around diversification have intensified, tangible results may not yet be immediately visible. However, it is important to understand that the development of international air services is neither a short-term nor a simple process.

Establishing new international air routes may require years of negotiations, bilateral air service agreements, market assessments, airline engagement, and long-term commercial planning. Successful air connectivity development also depends on aligning regulatory support, airport readiness, tourism marketing, route incentives, and government policy. Airlines make network decisions based on long-term profitability, operational feasibility, and strategic market confidence, not short-term market fluctuations.

For the Maldives, diversifying air connectivity beyond traditional Gulf transit hubs will therefore require sustained coordination between the government, the Civil Aviation Authority, airports, Visit Maldives, tourism stakeholders, and international airline partners. While progress may appear gradual, building a resilient and diversified global air network is ultimately a long-term strategic investment in the country’s economic and tourism security.

The Maldives’ aviation and tourism industries are facing a critical moment as geopolitical instability, shifting airline networks, and heavy dependence on Middle Eastern transit hubs expose the vulnerabilities of the Maldives air connectivity model. While the Maldives remains one of the world’s most desirable tourism destinations, sustaining future growth will depend on how effectively the country diversifies its international air services, strengthens route development strategies, and expands direct connectivity into emerging markets.

Middle East Disruptions Expose Maldives’ Air Connectivity Vulnerabilities

According to Maldives Association of Travel Agents and Tour Operators (MATATO), the Maldives tourism industry lost nearly $500 million in revenue within just two and a half months due to disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis. The impact on tourist arrivals fluctuated throughout the period, reflecting the direct vulnerability of the country’s tourism sector to international air connectivity disruptions.

In March, tourist arrivals declined by approximately 22% compared to the same month in 2025, while average daily arrivals at the peak of the disruption fell by 41.5% compared to the previous month. The downturn intensified further in April, with arrivals dropping by 25.6% year-on-year to around 147,600 visitors, alongside nearly 500 flight cancellations reported by the government. However, by May, the sector began showing signs of recovery as global flight operations gradually resumed, with the year-on-year decline in tourist arrivals narrowing significantly to approximately 8.9%.

The situation has highlighted the Maldives’ excessive reliance on Gulf “super-connectors” such as Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad Airways, and Flydubai, which currently sustain a significant portion of the country’s year-round connectivity. Based on the passenger movement figures, Gulf-region carriers collectively carried an estimated 40% of the Maldives’ international scheduled passenger traffic in 2024, while accounting for an even larger share of transit and connecting traffic into the country.

Top ten carriers by traffic - 2024

Maldives Air Connectivity Rankings and Global Competitiveness in Similar Markets

Air connectivity reflects how well a country is connected to cities around the world. Access to greater air connectivity is fundamental to the ability of a given country or city to develop economic linkages with the rest of the world. Air connectivity provides the foundation for international mobility of people and goods and is therefore a vital engine of economic growth worldwide (IATA 2019).

As of March 2026, the Maldives has signed 36 Air Service Agreements (ASAs) and entered into 17 Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs), establishing aviation arrangements with 53 countries. However, only 23 of these countries currently operate scheduled or charter services to the Maldives, meaning approximately 57% of bilateral aviation agreements remain underutilized.

Several bodies including NetScan (ACI Europe), International Air Transport Association (IATA) and World Bank have developed different tools to measure air connectivity. The most comprehensive tool is developed by IATA as IATA’s Air Connectivity Index. It measures air connectivity in 6 different types:

1- Direct vs Indirect 

2- Absolute vs Relative

3- Adjusted for economic size

4- Adjusted for population size 

5- Total vs International 

6- Intra-regional 

Air connectivity scores for countries

Source: IATA

Air connectivity per population

Source: IATA

Air connectivity per GDP

Source: IATA

International air connectivity

Source: IATA

According to IATA, the Maldives accounts for 0.2% (equivalent to Sri Lanka) of global international passenger traffic and ranked as the 89th largest market in terms of passenger departures in 2023. This is a drop of 6 ranks from 83rd from 2019.  In contrast, Sri Lanka was ranked at 76th in 2023. Despite its relatively small share of global traffic, the Maldives has experienced a phenomenal cumulative growth of 44.1% over the past decade, indicating that potential demand for air transport to the country remains at an all-time high.

Over the last five years, up to 2023, Maldives gained 10 new international routes, averaging two new routes per year. When measured in GDP and Population size in 2019, Maldives ranked globally 2nd and 4th respectively. Though there was a drop of 6 ranks from 2019 to 2023 air connectivity by countries, in relative terms Maldives remains competitive with its current air connectivity. 

Why Direct International Air Services Matter

Direct air services are among the most powerful drivers of tourism growth and economic development. Unlike indirect connectivity, which merely provides access through transit hubs, direct flights stimulate entirely new demand by reducing travel time, improving convenience, increasing destination visibility, and enhancing competitiveness.

Studies by IATA, ICAO, ACI Europe, and the World Bank consistently show that destinations with stronger direct connectivity experience higher tourism growth, greater visitor spending, increased trade, and stronger economic performance. Research by ACI Europe further indicates that a 10% increase in direct air connectivity is associated with a 0.5% increase in GDP per capita and a 1.6% increase in employment. 

For long-haul leisure destinations such as the Maldives, direct services are particularly valuable because they attract premium travelers, strengthen airline and destination marketing efforts, improve cargo efficiency, and generate significantly higher traffic stimulation than one-stop alternatives. Industry studies suggest that the introduction of direct services can stimulate passenger demand by 20% to 50% above underlying market growth, creating substantial tourism, trade, and investment benefits. While indirect connectivity through Gulf hubs remains essential, attracting direct services from key markets such as Spain, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Scandinavia would not only improve accessibility but also generate stronger and more sustainable economic returns for the Maldives. 

Maldives’ Lost Air Connectivities

In recent years, the Maldives has lost several international airline partners and routes due to airline insolvencies and post-pandemic network restructuring. These include:

• Go First - suspended operations from Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Hyderabad.

• Wizz Air Abu Dhabi - ceased operations in 2025, reducing capacity on the Abu Dhabi route.

• Korean Air - withdrew Seoul–Malé services.

• China Southern Airlines - discontinued Guangzhou services.

• Cathay Pacific - suspended Hong Kong connectivity.

• SilkAir - ceased operations following its merger with Singapore Airlines.

• Vistara - ceased operations following its merger with Air India.

  
  

These losses have created both capacity and connectivity gaps that require coordinated national intervention rather than isolated airport-level responses.

The next part ofthis analysis is published under part 2